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Gustafsson F, Jaldén J, Bernhardsson B, Soltesz K
IFAC Pap OnLine 53 (5) 829-832 [2021-05-26; online 2021-05-26]
The Covid-19 pandemic has spawned numerous dynamic modeling attempts aimed at estimation, prediction, and ultimately control. The predictive power of these attempts has varied, and there remains a lack of consensus regarding the mechanisms of virus spread and the effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions that have been enforced regionally as well as nationally. Setting out in data available in the spring of 2020, and with a now-famous model by Imperial College researchers as example, we employ an information-theoretical approach to shed light on why the predictive power of early modeling approaches have remained disappointingly poor.
PubMed 38620619
DOI 10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.179
Crossref 10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.179
pmc: PMC8153199
pii: S2405-8963(21)00326-8