A combined neural ODE-Bayesian optimization approach to resolve dynamics and estimate parameters for a modified SIR model with immune memory.

Liu D, Sopasakis A

Heliyon 10 (19) e38276 [2024-10-15; online 2024-09-24]

We propose a novel hybrid approach that integrates Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) with Bayesian optimization to address the dynamics and parameter estimation of a modified time-delay-type Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model incorporating immune memory. This approach leverages a neural network to produce continuous multi-wave infection profiles by learning from both data and the model. The time-delay component of the SIR model, expressed through a convolutional integral, results in an integro-differential equation. To resolve these dynamics, we extend the NODE framework, employing a Runge-Kutta solver, to handle the challenging convolution integral, enabling us to fit the data and learn the parameters and dynamics of the model. Additionally, through Bayesian optimization, we enhance prediction accuracy while focusing on long-term dynamics. Our model, applied to COVID-19 data from Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea, effectively learns critical time-dependent parameters and provides accurate short- and long-term predictions. This combined methodology allows for early prediction of infection peaks, offering significant lead time for public health responses.

PubMed 39391478

DOI 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38276

Crossref 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38276

pmc: PMC11466598
pii: S2405-8440(24)14307-1